Monday Market Minute | Mar 31, 2025
Canada's spring housing market opens with mixed signals — lower rates draw buyers in but trade uncertainty and affordability keep volumes below historical norms.
What Moved
CREA's March data painted a picture of cautious re-engagement. New listings rose 12% nationally compared to March 2024, and sales volumes ticked up in Toronto, Vancouver, and Ottawa. However, activity remained well below the 10-year average for spring openings. Buyers were motivated by lower mortgage rates but restrained by job security concerns amid trade disruption. The condo segment in Toronto continued to lag, with inventory-to-sales ratios at multi-year highs, while single-family homes in suburban and secondary markets showed relative strength.
Why It Matters
For private real estate investors, the bifurcated market created selective opportunities. MIC lenders focused on low-rise residential construction found strong demand from builders racing to deliver into a market with structural undersupply. Condo-focused portfolios faced valuation pressure as pre-construction absorption rates slowed. The mortgage renewal wave continued to generate refinancing volume for alternative lenders, maintaining healthy origination pipelines even as the broader market hesitated.
Signal to Watch
CMHC's April housing starts data would reveal whether builders were reading the recovery as durable or waiting for clearer trade policy signals before breaking ground.