Monday Market Minute | Jan 9, 2023
Canadian housing prices showed signs of stabilizing in early January as buyers tested the bottom of the steepest correction since the early 1990s.
What Moved
CREA data confirmed that national home prices had fallen roughly 15% from the February 2022 peak, with some Greater Toronto submarkets down more than 20%. Yet early January listings in key urban markets showed modest buyer activity returning — the first tentative signs that the bottom might be forming. Sales volumes remained deeply depressed, down over 35% year-over-year.
Why It Matters
Housing is the connective tissue of Canadian private markets. Mortgage investment corporations, private REIT portfolios, and construction lenders all depend on price stability. A confirmed floor in housing would validate the underwriting assumptions behind billions in outstanding private credit exposure, particularly in the MIC sector where loan-to-value ratios had risen passively as collateral values declined.
Signal to Watch
January listing inventory levels in the GTA and GVA would indicate whether the spring market could produce a genuine recovery, or whether sellers would continue to hold back, keeping transaction volumes frozen.