Monday Market Minute | Feb 10, 2020
Early coronavirus concerns emerge but Canadian markets remain near highs with private market activity unaffected — for now.
What Moved
A novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China continued to spread, with cases exceeding 40,000 globally by early February. Despite growing concern from epidemiologists, North American equity markets were largely unmoved — the TSX Composite hovered near all-time highs. Canadian PE and private credit markets showed no signs of stress. Oil prices dipped modestly on expectations that Chinese demand could soften, but the pullback was seen as temporary. Private market fund managers reported no changes to deployment plans or underwriting assumptions.
Why It Matters
Market complacency in the face of a potential pandemic created asymmetric risk for private market investors. Unlike public equities, private market holdings could not be exited quickly if conditions deteriorated. Investors with exposure to sectors dependent on global supply chains — manufacturing, commodities, hospitality — faced latent vulnerability that standard underwriting models did not capture.
Signal to Watch
Monitor Chinese manufacturing PMI data for February. A sharp contraction would signal supply chain disruptions that could cascade into Canadian PE portfolio companies with cross-border dependencies.