Monday Market Minute | Sep 2, 2019
The Bank of Canada holds at 1.75% in September, resisting the global easing trend while acknowledging mounting external risks.
What Moved
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.75% at its September 4 decision, maintaining its outlier status among major central banks. The Fed had cut in July, the ECB was preparing a comprehensive easing package, and over 30 central banks had cut rates in 2019. Governor Poloz acknowledged that trade conflicts posed a "material" risk but pointed to resilient domestic demand, strong employment, and recovering housing as justification for holding steady.
Why It Matters
Canada's rate differential — now 25 basis points above the US — continued to support the private credit thesis. While global yields compressed, Canadian private credit managers operated in an environment where base rates provided meaningful starting yield. The BoC's resistance to cutting also signaled confidence in the domestic economy, which was supportive for PE sponsors underwriting deals against Canadian GDP growth assumptions.
Signal to Watch
The ECB's September 12 meeting was expected to deliver a substantial stimulus package — potentially including rate cuts, tiered reserves, and renewed quantitative easing. The scale of ECB action would determine how much global easing pressure the BoC could withstand before being forced to respond.